MIAMI — The Miami-Dade County real estate market is on pace to have its second biggest sales year ever as the resilient market slowly inches toward equilibrium in the wake of rising mortgage rates, according to September 2022 statistics from the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system.
“The unprecedented rise in mortgage rates – from 3% to 7% – plus the fact that sales will be compared to Miami’s historic 2021 real estate market means transactions this winter will be down, not just in Miami, but all over the country,” MIAMI Chairman of the Board Fernando Arencibia Jr. said. “However, Miami’s strong market fundamentals will insulate our market to a large degree. At the heart of it all, real estate is a business built on supply and demand. We have yet to see statistically significant increases in new listings, so even with a reduced buyer pool we are still tracking multiple offers because inventory has not moved significantly.”
Miami Projected to Post Second-Biggest Sales Year Ever
The Miami-Dade County real estate market has already sold 25,990 total homes sales (or 95 transactions per day) through September 2022, putting it on pace to be the second-best year ever for total annual sales behind historic 2021.
In comparison to a record September 2021, Miami September 2022 sales decreased 28.1% year-over-year, from 3,031 to 2,178, because of rising mortgage rates and low inventory.
September 2022 total sales outperformed Miami’s pre-pandemic September totals. Miami averaged 2,129 total homes sales in the month of September from 2018-19) and had 2,178 sales in September 2022.
Single-family home sales decreased 30% year-over-year, from 1,241 in record-breaking September 2021 to 869 in September 2022, due to lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates. Miami existing condo sales decreased 26.9% year-over-year, from 1,790 record-breaking September 2021 to 1,309 in September 2022, due to lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates.
The Fed, which voted for another Fed Funds rate increase in September, is intent on slowing 40-year high inflation. While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, it affects them through its conduct of monetary policy. As a result, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated from 2.99% to 6.92% in the last 52 weeks, an unprecedented range of volatility.